4/4 TODAY

Managed to trade 4 matches today.....decided to call it a day after Juventus..had my eye a couple more, which would have also brought profit, however Im happy with todays performance.

My favourite trade of the day was Arsenal Fulham even if it was 0-0 I felt I traded it well. Overall profit £641.....hopefully get a few matches in tomorrow...not studied fully yet, but on first look Bolton match and Real Betis are likely trading candidates.....but will see!!

COLOGNE RESULT

Well unfortunately Cologne scored fairly early on so I didnt manage to get much on them . My gut feeling was to get on quicker as they had control of the game, however there scoring record at home was not brilliant so I stuck to my game plan, I was hoping they would add a 2nd and did actually back them at 1.44 after the goal, unfortunately with what must have been their only shot of the match Beilefeld scored after a hash of a back pass. So my plan then changed. With 30 mins to go you could see they were both happy with a point so I backed the draw at 1.92, and I also backed unders just before half time and also 1-1 correct score, and gradually traded out of them to reduce loss if no goal was scored...Overall a very small loss ...and onto the next one

FC Cologne V Bielefeld

Very brief post as the game is about to kick off, I fancy Cologne here, howver need to be cautious as Bielefeld are performing better since winter break. I have backed 0-0 with £100 wand backed Colgne with small satkes and also layed the draw with enough to cover my £100 on the 0-0. I have also backed unders but do think there will be a first half goal so will be looking to get out sharpish if a goal looks likely. Will be staggering stakes accordingly Lets see what happens!!

WELL DONE MAN CITY

Well after a disastrous 24 hours of getting my new laptop stolen in a bar and missing 2 trades last night which of course went as expected, which would have brought in at least £500, and then having a 4 hour train journey that takes 2 hours normally, followed by just 1 hours sleep, going out and buying another laptop, I fanally sat down for 1 main trade this evening (Man City), and had a little play on Gallatasary v Bordeux match which ended a complete goal fest 4-3. I had backed the under 3.5 goals market after Bordeux scored at 1.65, which i should have got out a little earlier on as went down to 1.26 when G equalised, I backed again, only for Kewell to pop up 2 mins later with a great strike. Having looked at previous stats, decided that there would be more goals in this one, so lumped on and moved all the loss over to unders, with no loss on overs, and thankfully the goals poured in around 65 mins so got out for no loss. I had layed Bordeux with small stakes after they scored aswell. Overall just over £25 profit.

I really fancied Man City this evening, they are a half decent home side, there confidence is getter better, and this is their only stage they can prove themselves in this year. I backed 0-0 with £60 with a view to backing Man City gradually to get some value, I staggered my stake in, probably another 5-10 mins, and would have had good win as had plenty cover with 0-0. Still managed to get average odds of 1.8 so not so bad. I thought City did a job and thoroughly deserved the win. Overall took over £200 profit.

I want to try and do a review of a few games on the blog before kick off, to explain my thoughts of how i intend to trade each game.

Until next time!!!

3 GAMES AT ONCE------NOT FOR THE FEINT HEARTED

Well I made a decision to trade 3 games tonight.....well I say that I was only trading fairly straight forward stuff. Backed unders in Inter game, and also in Arsenal game. Man utd was a no brainer even if odds were short so didnt even watch more than a few mins of this one, although there were chances for Utd to score, and Inter looked pretty average. Ronaldo probably should have took his chances for his first CL goal this season.

The Arsenal game started with the home team on the front foot, so actually ended up trading out fairly swiftly after 10 mins or so, and puttting profit onto overs, as soon as Arsenal scored backed unders again, leaving most profit on unders, but gradually greening up by laying at low odds incase of a late rally, and also had switched attention to the Barca game......this was not such an easy one and could have been costly one yet again on the formidable or so i thought 2 weeks ago Barcalona , who without Inesta dont look so hot. In short I layed Lyon, had to back them after the goal at shorter odds as Barca were shocking, then did a mixture of backing and laying the draw and backing Barca as there odds drifted beyon 4.4 . It looked like it would end a Draw or Barca nicking it, took a loss on the game but overall a profit tonight of £216.00

HULL 1 SPURS 2 - SMALL PROFIT

Tonight I traded Hull - Spurs. I initially backed 0-0 with £100, with a view to laying the Draw gradually to get some value, unfortunately I only got £100 layed at 3.35 before the goal came from spurs against the run of play, so that meant no chance of any decent winnings.

I then layed spurs with £200 around 1.42, which proved to be the right move as within 10 mins or so Hull pulled in back.I then backed unders with £50 at 5.5 and backed spurs leavng £175 profit on either Spurs or Hull.

Game was tight, with little chances either end but spurs had the upper hand, so I layed Hull with £40 at 4.6, I didnt back spurs as felt the draw was still on the cards, and I woul have had too mch liability should it end 1-1. I then traded out from 1.6 on unders gradually , leaving a £30 liability before Woodgate clinched a winner with less than 10 to go!!. I had a few little cover bets at 34 and 100 on the draw (Spurs always concede last 5 mins).

So overall lost £100 on 0-0 £30 on Unders and profit of £215 on Spurs...Total £83 Profit.

THAT LAST TRADE OF THE WEEK

Well.....what started as a fair week fell on its backside at the final hurdle, and that same hurdle (8pm Sunday Primera Match)that seems to get me more often than not, infact 5 out of the last 6 albeit not losses like experienced last night, so it may be time to go with by better judgement and retire to watching the likes of Jordan and Peter with the missus of a Sunday evening....not!!.

However much time and planning you put into the way you play out your trade, sometimes it just doesnt go your way, and although I should have put more emphasis on the team Saville had out, the stats were stacked towards at least a draw, and given they were against 10 men for 2/3 of the match I expected to see at least 1 more goal, which had in come from either side(£1200 cover on 2-0) I was in the profit, but thats football I guess and you have to keep plugging at it and work the percentages, which after all were still in my favour over the week even with a fairly large loss.

Well the transfer window is all over and will be interesting now to see how certain teams perform without key players who have moved on. In partcular Bolton without Kevin Nolan, who has gone northward to the toon for a bargain £4 Million. Having made over 300 appearances for Bolton over 10 years.

Key Stats:
Kevin Nolan has played 166 of Bolton’s last 200 league matches (83%).
Bolton won 41% of their matches with him, but when he was absent they won a paltry 18%, W6-D7-L21 without him.
Bolton accrued an average of 0.73 points per game more when Nolan did play — 1.47 with him, 0.74 without.
It appears Nolan was a major part of both defence and attack at Bolton. When he played, Bolton kept a clean sheet in 51 of their 166 matches (31%), which dropped to 12% when he was unavailable for selection (4/34). They also netted in 77% of the games in which Nolan played compared to 53% when he didn’t. .

My team spurs are gradually getting their squad of last season bck on board, with the signing of Robbie Keane, fom Liverpool. So their will now be players fihting for places in the striker department.

Will try and do a midweek post this week before a trade with a brief on how I intend to play it, although this can change inplay, and how you play that is what makes te difference between profit & loss if the game goes against the grain.

Until next time..................be lucky!! DTM

FROM THIS

TO THIS .....BOO!!